Accelerate January 2021 Magazine

JANUARY 2021 MAGAZINE 17 In addition to the panelists, Nancy Johnshoy, CFA, Vice President – Portfolio Manager & Market Strategist for First Business Bank’s Private Wealth group, provided a recap of the economy in 2020 and an outlook for 2021. At the start of 2020, the U.S. was still enjoying modest growth from an economic expansion that began way back in July of 2009. That ended abruptly in February with the arrival of COVID-19. The first quarter GDP decline of 5 percent was really just the tip of the iceberg with the full brunt of the downturn felt in Q2 when production declined at an annualized rate of 31.4 percent. As restrictions eased over the summer, the U.S. economy strongly rebounded, posting an upturn of 33.4 percent annualized. The worst of the economic blow was cushioned by strong and swift support from both the Federal Reserve and the federal government. This included the massive CARES Act, the largest relief package ever passed. Employment took a direct hit from the pandemic. The U.S. economy shed 22.2 million jobs almost overnight in March and April. This drove the unemployment rate to 14.1 percent from a previous 50-year low of 3.5 percent. We have added back over 12 million jobs to an unemployment level of 6.7 percent. Other broad indicators of economic recovery show significant improvement. Recovery has not been evenly distributed with some rebounding strongly and others, especially those in the travel, leisure and hospitality industries continuing to struggle. The First Business Bank 2021 Business Statistics & Trends report indicated that 57 percent of Southeast Wisconsin survey respondents either did as well or better than expected in 2020. Forty-three percent did worse and the majority indicated that COVID-19 was the primary driver of that underperformance. There is significant optimism for the year ahead with 75 percent anticipating better results in 2021 and only 6 percent expecting a decline. The economic outlook for the upcoming year is positive with recovery likely to continue, although perhaps at a slower pace in the first half of the year as COVID-19 continues to be a factor. Growth for the year is expected to be in the neighborhood of 4 percent. Job growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace. Business conditions will remain accommodative in 2021 with favorable interest rates, continued Federal Reserve support, and an additional fiscal policy relief package. • JOHN KISSINGER President & CEO, GRAEF ROGER ROUNDHOUSE CEO, CentroMotion DR. CINDY GNADINGER President, Carroll University DR. MARK MONE Chancellor, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee DR. PETER STAMAS Chief Administration Officer, Ascension KEY INDUSTRIES PANELISTS